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Macro market long and short interweaving Short-term copper
Industry information

2018-11-26Industry information游客:103

Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated. The current monthly average settlement price of 1812 contracts is 49,568 yuan / ton, with an average daily loss of 4 yuan / ton; the previous week's average price reported 49,052 yuan / ton, up 1.05%. Recently, Shanghai copper stocks decreased by 1,581 tons to 133,163 tons, a decrease of 1.17%. In the last four weeks, the cumulative decline was 10.59%. The inventory of copper and copper continued to decline, with a total reduction of 21,475 metric tons to 139,550 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 13.34%.
Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission said that from January to October, the investment in new intent investment projects nationwide increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the end of the third quarter. According to the statistics bureau, in 2017, the national “three new” (new industry, new business mode, new business model) economic growth value was 1,29,579 million yuan, equivalent to 15.7% of GDP, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous year; The growth rate was 14.1%, which was 2.9 percentage points higher than the current GDP growth rate.
Internationally, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in November was the lowest since August, and consumer expectations for the status quo and future conditions were lower. The number of first US applicants last week increased by 3,000 to 224,000, a high of more than four months, but the overall trend still indicates that the job market continues to be tight.
Industry News:
1. The main copper mines in Chile have not seen any decline in production this year. According to a recent report from Fitch's macro research, copper production in Chile, the world's number one copper producer, will rise by 2% by the end of this year, and is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2019, mainly due to the stronger performance of large copper mines. Operational upgrades to existing mines and reduced strike risks.
2. According to foreign media reports, at least nine major copper smelters around the world plan to carry out factory overhaul in the first half of 2019. Like most major industrial plants, copper smelters are shut down for maintenance every two to three years to complete the Basic maintenance of facilities such as stoves, otherwise these devices will burn permanently to temperatures up to 1000 degrees Celsius for flash smelting. After the disruption of major smelters in Asia led to bottlenecks in the copper supply chain in 2018, a broader overhaul plan was carried out in 2019.
Outlook for the market outlook: After the update of the US “201 Survey” report, the two countries disputed. The market is worried that the Sino-US trade talks will add more variables. The non-ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech next week. The market expects the interest rate hike cycle to be Early termination, the strong dollar against the commodity market may be nearing completion. Investors are concerned about the trade dispute between China and the United States, whether it can achieve further easing at the G20 summit, which will directly affect the dollar and commodity prices; although there is no economic downside, trade conflicts and other reasons make the global economy The growth rate is slowing down. In the short term, the fundamentals may be calm, and the macro market will be intertwined. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate next week.
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